Trump hedges at a China trade deal

Editor's note: Tom Fowdy, who graduated from Oxford University's China Studies Program and majored in politics at Durham University, writes about international relations focusing on China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of APD.

On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was in “no rush” to make a trade deal with China, of which would bring an end to the yearlong economic saga between the two giants. The statement reflected comments made in the run-up to his meeting with DPRK leader Kim Jong Un in Vietnam only several weeks ago, where he said the same thing.

Not least regarding how that meeting ended up, the linkage in discourse was deliberate, with the President further going on to say that “I think President Xi saw that I'm somebody that believes in walking when the deal is not done, and you know there's always a chance it could happen and he probably wouldn't want that.” Of course, nor was Trump pessimistic, reiterating again that there was still a chance a deal could be done by the end of March.

Combined file photo shows Chinese Vice Premier Liu He (L) and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. /VCG Photo.

Whilst it is clear the President wants an agreement, he ultimately needs it to be a serious one and is attempting to place the ball in Beijing's court to do so. Under increasing political pressure at home with a hostile congress and those around him, the President is now constrained into advocating a tougher and tougher foreign policy to keep his critics at bay, thus the same pathology which abruptly killed Hanoi.

However, not all is bleak. As I have said before in previous pieces, economic considerations mean that Trump cannot afford to escalate the trade war. Thus, as his comments reflect, if no agreement can be reached he will only be looking to extend talks.

What is happening to Trump's foreign policy recently? It is a complicated assessment as there are multiple factors at play, leaving the analyst prone to reductionism. On one hand, it is observable to note that in his approach to Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping, Trump is applying tricks from his very own “art of the deal” playbook. That is bargaining hard and accumulating as much leverage as he can in order to force an outcome to his desires.

The abrupt decision to walk away from the Hanoi summit was textbook Trump, even if other factors or individuals motivated it. But of course as this suggests, there is more to it.

U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and DPRK leader Kim Jong Un sit for a dinner at the Sofitel Legend Metropole hotel in Hanoi on February 27, 2019. /VCG Photo.

To elaborate, domestic politics in the United States is taking its toll on the President. With the Mueller probe and the Cohen hearing turning up the heat on Trump, combined with a hostile congress intent on challenging the President's policy by arguing it is not tough enough, and of course the view to 2020 on the way, Trump faces unprecedented pressure to get results.

In such a polarized environment, it has become commonplace for political opposition to deride and even tear up international agreements, hence his very own treatment of Obama's Iran deal. Thus, these factors are having a profoundly negative impact on Trump's deal making with others.

As a result, the President is now hedging back carefully against a deal to end the trade war. In a very notable pattern from talk of a “deal being almost done” amongst U.S. officials (in a similar light to Hanoi), the President is now again rowing back on something that almost seemed guaranteed, but now is casting doubt on and wanting a tougher adherence to American terms.

Essentially, Trump has all but threatened to walk away again if things are not right, attempting to put the ball in China's court. In doing so, he has openly stated what he wants: tougher concessions on intellectual property rights from Beijing, which has of course been one of the biggest sticking points between the two countries.

Still, the President's space to act too tough is limited, adding restraint to his approach. Whilst saying he is “in no rush” is an indication he is happy to propel the status quo if an agreement cannot be reached, he is also playing down any need to escalate things further, instead simply opting to prolong negotiations.

There have been no new threats of tariffs. As he said, “We could get the deal almost completed and negotiate some of the final points.” Make no mistake about it; such comments remind us that Trump is serious about getting something. He remains very much aware that escalating the situation further will damage the American economy and undermine his 2020 prospects in the process.

Thus, whilst a deal will boost his economic record, the factors above indicate he is on a tightrope with him attempting to balance this against demands for a politically acceptable agreement. Thus, this creates an outlook that is persistent, but not demanding.

In summary, whilst things do not look bleak for the trade war, Trump is acting now with renewed political caution owing to changing circumstances back home. As we have seen in Hanoi, the President has become increasingly sensitive to agreements which may be framed by opponents as an American capitulation, leading him to toughen his negotiating stances accordingly.

He is optimistic about China, but he is trying to make it clear that he wants an agreement which can be favorable to him, namely involving intellectual property. On the other hand, he is exercising patience too, driven by the subtle recognition that a sensible end to this conflict is necessary, but one that can suit him.

(CGTN)