APD Review | Political survival of Brexit may soon find the drowning hard to shun

By APD writer Roy Lu

British Prime Minister Theresa May may have survived a no-confidence vote on her leadership on Wednesday, the possibility that she would fail to lead Britain to weather one of the worst crises facing the country looms large.

For the British, time is ticking away as the date for Britain to leave the European Union on March 29 is ruthlessly approaching. Though May’s Brexit deal has passed the vote on EU, the chance of it surviving the upcoming British parliament vote is slim now.

The weeks-long catfight within May’s own Conservative Party over the Brexit deal with the EU was capped on Wednesday as a group of pro-Brexit Conservative lawmakers launched a mutiny against May by a secret ballot of no-confidence vote on May’s leadership.

The vote was an alarming sign that the major hindrance to May’s push for passing the Brexit deal at parliament did not lie in the opposition force. Instead, May’s most formidable enemies come from her own party.

After May won the no-confidence vote, one of her allies British Transport Secretary Chris Grayling exclaimed that May’s political survival this time was “a clear statement by the parliamentary party that they want her to go forward, (that) they want her to lead us through Brexit.”

It was, unfortunately, an overstatement of May’s grip of the Conservative Party. Among the 300- plus Conservative lawmakers in parliament, 200 lawmakers voted for May while 117 voted against her.

In other words, May had lost support of over one third of her own party member over the Brexit deal. Without the firm support from her own party, the calculation of passing the Brexit vote in the British parliament before January 21th looks dim for the British leader.

For May’s critics within her own Conservative Party, London had compromised too much in the Brexit deal with Brussels by remaining too close an economic relation. For pro-Brexit lawmakers, May’s deal failed to represent a clear breakup with the EU.

In soliciting supports from the restless Conservative Party lawmakers, May made her promises: first, she would step down before the next election in 2022; secondly, she would seek changes to the current version of the Brexit deal reached with the EU.

“I would be seeking legal and political assurances that will assuage the concerns of the lawmakers,” said May.

The task of seeking EU’s agreement on changing the items of the Brexit deal, however, is almost impossible to achieve. EU leaders had already made it crystal clear that the EU would not re- negotiate the legally binding Brexit deal.

One of the most thorny issues at hand is the so called “Irish backstop”, a clause requiring London to adhere to the current EU trade rules till a better way is found to solve the problem of “hard border” across Ireland. For pro-Brexit lawmakers, it is equated with a trap rather than a way out.

As May went to Brussels on Thursday for counsel with the EU leaders, it was apparent that the communications channel remained open for future discussion. However, the question remains what London wanted from the EU. For now, the EU leaders expressed exasperation that the British were unnecessarily evasive in their demands.

In an ominous sign, European Commission President Jean- Claude Juncker announced on Thursday that the EU would soon publish “all the information that is generally useful for the preparation of a no- deal Brexit.”

Though May reportedly told her Conservative peers to “trust me” in leading the Brexit, the British, unfortunately, have plenty reasons not to.

Roy Lu, researcher of APD Institute. Lu covered the 2016 U.S. presidential election till the very end of Donald Trump’s upset victory. He is a political contributor to APD.

（ASIA PACIFIC DAILY）