Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist – Diplomat – Advisor - Consultant,Founding Chair, Global Silk Route research Alliance.(E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

The Iran war may ultimately prove to be a turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Regardless of how the conflict is judged, one conclusion is increasingly difficult to ignore: military power alone cannot permanently reshape the region. Iran remains a major regional actor, and any durable post-war order will have to take its interests and capabilities seriously.

The Strait of Hormuz will be central to this new equation. Iran and Oman are the two coastal states of the strait and have jointly affirmed their commitment to safe passage while emphasizing their sovereignty and sovereign rights over their respective territorial waters. Iran may exercise its sovereignty and charge some kind of service charges against priding services to passing ships. Iran may also access the details of ship, and cargo and may control on passage of certain cargo or ships. 

This distinction matters. Iran can legitimately seek greater influence over maritime security, monitoring and safety in waters under its jurisdiction. Oman is already onboard, some other GCC states may also accept is soon. Iran is in communication with all stakeholders in the region. 

Nevertheless, Iran's strategic importance has undoubtedly increased. The war has demonstrated that Tehran cannot simply be removed from the regional security equation through military pressure. The wiser post-war strategy would therefore be negotiation rather than perpetual confrontation. Iran has powerful incentives to reopen and stabilize Hormuz: prolonged disruption would damage its own economy, regional trade and relations with neighboring states.

The same logic applies to Iran's relations with the Gulf. Saudi Arabia and Iran have already demonstrated that dialogue is possible. Their 2023 Beijing-mediated agreement restored diplomatic relations, and both countries reaffirmed their commitment to that framework in December 2025. A post-war regional settlement could build on this experience. Qatar and UAE are also in diplomatic channel communication and rest of GCC state may also join them soon. 

Saudi Arabia, Iran, Türkiye, Egypt, Pakistan and the GCC states do not need to become a single bloc. What they need is a regional security architecture based on sovereignty, non-aggression, economic interdependence and dialogue. The recently established Pakistan-Saudi-Türkiye defence agreement could become part of this broader architecture if it remains genuinely defensive. The three countries have described the pact as defensive and open to additional participants; Egypt has already been identified as a possible future participant.

Pakistan has a particularly valuable diplomatic role. Pakistan with its strong military, equipped with nuclear arsenal, enjoys close ties with all regional countries and enjoys their full-trust. Islamabad maintains relationships with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Türkiye and other Gulf countries, while Pakistan and Qatar were involved in mediation that contributed to the June US-Iran agreement. Saudi Arabia itself welcomed Pakistan's mediation efforts. Pakistan should therefore avoid becoming an instrument of confrontation and instead position itself as a bridge between competing regional powers.

The ultimate objective should be a Middle East capable of managing its own security. Foreign military forces cannot provide permanent stability if the underlying regional disputes remain unresolved.

Washington should therefore be offered a dignified diplomatic exit rather than being pushed toward another escalation. Israel, Iran, Arab states and external powers all have legitimate security concerns, but none can achieve lasting stability through indefinite war.

The post-war Middle East does not have to become an Iranian sphere of influence, an Israeli security zone or an American military preserve. Its most promising future is a regional balance in which Iran, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt, Pakistan and the Gulf states recognize one another's interests and collectively protect peace, trade and sovereignty. Regional countries have learned a bitter lesion after this ongoing war and are serious to address their concerns with each other, without any involvement of any foreign power. Despite spending trillions of dollars, US failed to provide security to them. There will be no US role in the future security of Middle East. 

The real victory after the war should not belong to one country. It should belong to diplomacy and collective security of all.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY）