Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Founding Chair GSRRA, Sinologist, Diplomat, Editor, Analyst, Advisor, Consultant, Researcher at Global South Economic and Trade Cooperation Research Center, and Non-Resident Fellow of CCG. (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

In the first quarter of the 21st century, the global economic landscape has undergone a fundamental transformation. China, once considered the “world’s factory,” has now become the world’s unrivaled industrial powerhouse. In 2024, Beijing’s manufacturing exports surged past $3.26 trillion, exceeding the combined exports of three industrial giants — the United States, Germany, and Japan. This milestone is not just an economic achievement; it is a geopolitical turning point that redefines the balance of global trade, influence, and power.

The rise of China is not a projection of tomorrow; it is today’s undeniable reality. Those who continue to speak of containing China or forcing it into submission are not only misguided but increasingly out of step with the structural shifts shaping the international system. China’s ascent has reached a stage where coercion, pressure, and containment are no longer viable strategies. The only rational course is cooperation and collaboration, for the benefit of all.

China’s Industrial Supremacy: More Than Numbers

China’s manufacturing exports worth $3.26 trillion in 2024 are not merely statistical figures; they signify the centrality of China in the global economy. By surpassing the combined industrial output of the U.S., Germany, and Japan — three countries long regarded as technological and industrial leaders — Beijing has established itself as the indispensable hub of global supply chains.

From consumer electronics to renewable energy technologies, from electric vehicles to medical equipment, China’s dominance is comprehensive. For example:

Electronics: China accounts for more than 70% of global smartphone production and nearly 90% of global laptop assembly.

Green technologies: China produces over 80% of the world’s solar panels and 60% of wind turbines, and its electric vehicle industry, led by companies like BYD, has overtaken Western competitors in scale and cost efficiency.

Semiconductors and components: While advanced chip design remains contested, China is the primary producer of many intermediate goods and rare earths essential for global electronics.

Textiles and consumer goods: China remains the dominant player, supplying everything from fashion to household essentials at a scale and affordability unmatched by others.

This scale is not accidental. It reflects decades of consistent investment in infrastructure, industrial modernization, workforce development, and long-term planning. Unlike the West’s short-term, profit-driven model, China has pursued a vision of industrial strength aligned with national strategy, guided by the principle that economic resilience is the foundation of sovereignty.

Beyond Economics: Strategic Leverage

China’s industrial supremacy translates directly into geopolitical strength. Supply chains today are not just economic pipelines — they are strategic arteries. The world’s dependence on Chinese goods and manufacturing inputs creates a structural reality: no major economy, whether in Washington, Berlin, or Tokyo, can afford to disrupt ties with China without harming itself.

Attempts at “decoupling” or “friend-shoring” have proven largely ineffective. Despite tariffs, trade restrictions, and political rhetoric, global demand for Chinese products continues to grow. In fact, China’s share of global manufacturing exports has increased steadily from 12% in 2006 to nearly 20% today. Western measures to weaken China’s role in global trade have largely failed because global markets — particularly in the Global South — prefer affordability, reliability, and scalability, all of which China provides.

This structural dependence gives Beijing a form of quiet strategic deterrence. In the event of geopolitical crises — whether over Taiwan, trade disputes, or broader rivalries — China does not need to flex military muscles to demonstrate strength. Its industrial dominance is itself a shield and a sword: the mere possibility of disrupted supply chains sends shockwaves through global markets.

A Multipolar Trade Order: China and the Global South

China’s rise is not only about its relations with the West. Perhaps even more important is its role as a partner and anchor for the Global South. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has expanded infrastructure, trade, and industrial linkages across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

For instance, when the United States imposed tariffs on Brazilian products, China swiftly expanded market access for Brazilian agricultural exports, ensuring Brazil’s economic stability. Similarly, Beijing has deepened trade discussions with India, South Africa, and other emerging powers, providing them with alternatives to Western-dominated markets.

This is why China’s rise cannot be framed merely as a “challenge” to the West. For much of the developing world, it is an opportunity — a chance to reduce dependency on Western economies and participate in a more multipolar trade system. As a leading member of BRICS, China is spearheading a framework of cooperation that emphasizes inclusivity, mutual benefit, and shared growth, rather than zero-sum competition.

The Failure of Containment

For years, Western policymakers have spoken of “containing China.” Yet the evidence shows that this strategy has not only failed but has often backfired.

Tariffs: U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were intended to weaken China’s export machine. Instead, Chinese exporters adapted by shifting to new markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Meanwhile, American consumers and industries bore the brunt of higher prices.

Technology restrictions: Efforts to block China’s access to advanced semiconductors have spurred Beijing to double down on indigenous innovation. Chinese firms like Huawei and SMIC have made significant progress in developing alternatives, turning restrictions into motivation.

Alliance-building: Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) or “friend-shoring” supply chains have achieved limited traction, as businesses continue to prioritize cost and efficiency — areas where China still dominates.

In short, the world cannot be organized around isolating China. It is too big, too central, and too indispensable. Containment is a fantasy; engagement is the only viable reality.

Strategic Patience: China’s Long Game

One of China’s greatest strengths lies in its strategic patience. Unlike some powers that rely on military adventurism to project influence, China understands that economic supremacy itself reshapes global power. Manufacturing dominance does not provoke wars but gradually and steadily undermines the primacy of others.

This approach also resonates with China’s philosophy of development and diplomacy. Beijing has consistently emphasized “win-win cooperation” — not as rhetoric, but as a reflection of its recognition that prosperity is more sustainable than confrontation. This is why China continues to invest in Africa’s infrastructure, partner with Latin American economies, and strengthen Asian integration through organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

For intelligence and strategic communities worldwide, the signal is clear: China does not need to confront the West militarily to shift the global balance. It is doing so quietly, through the logic of trade, production, and economic interdependence.

The Way Forward: Cooperation, Not Confrontation

The rise of China is not a threat to be neutralized but a reality to be engaged with constructively. The alternative — continued attempts at containment — will not succeed and will only breed instability.

For Western economies, the smarter path lies in collaboration:

On climate change: China’s leadership in renewable technologies makes it a natural partner in global decarbonization efforts.

On supply chains: Rather than trying to exclude China, working with it ensures resilience and efficiency.

On global development: Partnering with China in Africa, Asia, and Latin America could ensure stability and prosperity, reducing the risks of conflict and migration crises.

The truth is simple: there is no global solution without China. Whether on economics, climate, technology, or security, Beijing’s role is indispensable.

A New Era of Global Reality

The 21st century is defined not by the persistence of Western dominance but by the rise of multipolarity, with China at its core. Its $3.26 trillion in manufacturing exports is more than an economic figure; it is a strategic fact that no policymaker can afford to ignore.

The rise of China is not something that can be stopped, contained, or coerced. It has already happened. The world stands at a crossroads: to resist this reality is to invite unnecessary confrontation and instability. To embrace it is to unlock opportunities for shared growth and cooperation.

China’s message is clear: cooperation, not confrontation, is the way forward. The time has come for the world to acknowledge the new reality — the age of China’s industrial strength — and to build a future where this strength becomes the foundation of global prosperity, not rivalry.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)