Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Founding Chair GSRRA, Sinologist, Diplomat, Editor, Analyst, Advisor, Consultant, Researcher at Global South Economic and Trade Cooperation Research Center, and Non-Resident Fellow of CCG. (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

The Indo-U.S. relationship, once hailed as a strategic alliance rooted in shared democratic values and mutual interests, is now showing unmistakable signs of stress. Recent remarks by President Donald J. Trump criticizing India’s trade policies as “non-cooperative” are not isolated sentiments but part of a broader trend that points to deepening divergences and eroding trust between Washington and New Delhi. The apparent cooling of relations is not just a matter of diplomacy—it holds significant implications for the evolving geopolitical dynamics in South Asia and beyond.

Trade Tensions and Economic Frictions

President Trump’s scathing assessment of India’s trade regime as protectionist reflects long-standing American frustration. Despite several rounds of bilateral trade talks over the years, India has maintained high tariffs on a range of American goods—from motorcycles and automobiles to agricultural products and medical devices. According to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), India was among the top five countries with the highest average applied tariff rate in 2022, standing at around 17%. This has been a source of contention, especially when juxtaposed with U.S. expectations of “reciprocal access.”

In 2019, the Trump administration revoked India’s preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), citing failure to provide equitable market access to American businesses. The same protectionist tendencies are at the core of President Trump’s renewed critique, warning that India’s economic policies continue to hinder fair trade.

Furthermore, India’s ambitious “Make in India” initiative, while aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing, often discriminates against foreign firms. For example, Apple faced regulatory and policy obstacles that impeded its shift of manufacturing to India—a move that Trump discouraged in favor of bringing production back to the U.S. The American tech industry has also seen stricter visa rules and export control restrictions under scrutiny, especially concerning Indian talent inflows through H-1B and L-1 visas.

Immigration and Deportations: A Diplomatic Embarrassment

One of the lesser-discussed but highly symbolic irritants has been the large-scale deportation of undocumented Indian immigrants. During Trump’s first term, thousands of Indians were deported—many of them in military planes. Indian media and civil society viewed this as an affront to national dignity, and despite official silence, resentment simmered in New Delhi. The Trump administration's skepticism about Indian workers in Silicon Valley further fueled the perception that the U.S. was no longer as welcoming to Indian professionals as it once was.

Political Betrayal and Strategic Distrust

President Trump has not forgotten the political pivot executed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 2020 U.S. presidential elections. While Modi appeared to be closely aligned with Trump during his first term—hosting events like “Howdy Modi” in Houston—his apparent support for Joe Biden in the subsequent election has been seen as a diplomatic betrayal. This shift may have contributed to Trump’s cooling attitude toward India, further exacerbating existing strains.

More recently, the divergence came into sharp relief during the brief but consequential four-day war between India and Pakistan in May 2025. India attempted to place blame squarely on Pakistan for the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, and sought U.S. endorsement for aggressive military action. However, the Trump administration, reflecting lessons from previous regional conflicts, called for an impartial investigation and refused to accept India’s narrative without evidence.

When Indian forces began to falter in the battlefield, Modi made an urgent call to President Trump, requesting American intervention to broker a ceasefire. While Trump facilitated a truce, the episode revealed critical weaknesses in India's military capabilities and strategic miscalculations—dents that have shattered the long-held illusion in Washington of India as a reliable counterbalance to China.

Strategic Partnership in Question: From Clinton to Collapse?

For more than two decades, successive U.S. administrations—from President Clinton to President Biden—have viewed India as a pivotal partner in the Indo-Pacific strategy. The nuclear deal of 2005, defense logistics agreements, intelligence-sharing pacts, and a host of joint military exercises signified a robust and growing partnership. India’s elevation to “Major Defense Partner” status was supposed to cement long-term collaboration.

However, the May conflict exposed India’s limits and made it increasingly difficult for the U.S. to envision India as a credible security partner against China. The assumption that India could “contain China” now appears misguided. Trump’s belief, as sources suggest, is that “if India can’t handle Pakistan, how can it counter China?”—a sentiment that reflects growing skepticism in American defense circles.

Energy Ties with Russia and Iran: Ignoring U.S. Sanctions

India’s continued engagement with sanctioned regimes, particularly Iran and Russia, has been another point of friction. Despite U.S. sanctions and diplomatic warnings, India remains one of the largest importers of Russian crude oil—benefiting from deep discounts in the wake of Western sanctions on Moscow. Similarly, New Delhi continues limited but symbolic trade with Iran, especially in energy and connectivity projects like Chabahar Port.

These defiant moves challenge American expectations of alignment and show India’s preference for strategic autonomy over alliance loyalty. Trump's public and private criticisms of India's double-dealings have further alienated the two capitals. The fact that India is a vocal participant in anti-Western coalitions like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is also seen as contradictory to its supposed Western tilt.

India’s Growing Authoritarianism and Human Rights Concerns

Human rights issues are becoming another wedge in U.S.-India relations. The Modi government’s record on religious freedom, press freedom, and minority rights has attracted increasing global criticism. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), revocation of Kashmir’s special status, attacks on journalists, and discriminatory policies against Muslims and Dalits are viewed with unease in Washington, especially among Democrats and human rights advocates.

Although Trump is not known for prioritizing human rights in foreign policy, the bipartisan discomfort in the U.S. Congress with India’s growing authoritarianism is feeding into the broader deterioration of trust.

Deterioration in Motion: Implications for South Asia and Beyond

The visible fraying of U.S.-India ties will have profound consequences for regional dynamics in South Asia. First and foremost, it provides strategic breathing room for Pakistan, which has long been marginalized in American foreign policy due to Washington’s tilt toward India. The U.S. acknowledgment of Pakistan’s position during the Pahalgam crisis—and its refusal to endorse India’s narrative—signals a potential recalibration of American South Asia policy.

Moreover, China stands to benefit significantly. The weakening of the U.S.-India axis removes a key pillar from the American Indo-Pacific strategy. It allows China to consolidate influence in Asia, particularly through BRICS, SCO, and Belt and Road Initiative projects, which India has resisted or joined half-heartedly.

Additionally, the deterioration of trust between India and the U.S. will affect defense sales, intelligence sharing, and strategic coordination. This may push India further into the arms of Russia and perhaps even toward cautious rapprochement with China—a scenario that could upend traditional alliances and calculations.

Strategic Illusions Shattered

The Indo-U.S. relationship, once touted as the defining partnership of the 21st century, now appears riddled with contradictions, disappointments, and diverging interests. The Trump administration’s disillusionment with India is rooted in multiple realities: protectionist trade practices, unreliable strategic behavior, defiance on sanctions, and military underperformance. What remains is a relationship under serious strain, perhaps even at a breaking point.

For Pakistan and China, the unraveling of this alliance offers opportunities—to recalibrate their roles in the regional architecture and challenge American miscalculations. For the region as a whole, it is a time of realignment, where old certainties are vanishing, and new strategic equations are emerging.

In this emerging world order, the U.S. may find that India’s façade as a dependable ally was just that—a façade, polished by optics but hollow in substance. As President Trump reevaluates alliances, the myth of India as the West’s chosen counter to China may finally be exposed for what it always was: a geopolitical illusion.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)