Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Founding Chair GSRRA, Sinologist, Diplomat, Editor, Analyst, Advisor, Consultant, Researcher at Global South Economic and Trade Cooperation Research Center, and Non-Resident Fellow of CCG. (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

The India-Pakistan War of May 2025, brief yet deeply consequential, may go down as one of the most defining events in the 21st-century history of South Asia. Triggered by Indian aggression based on a false narrative, the war not only redrew the strategic balance between the two nuclear-armed neighbors but also sent ripples across the global diplomatic, political, and defense landscape.

The Genesis: A Manufactured Crisis

The seeds of conflict were sown on April 22, 2025, when India staged a false flag operation in Phalgam, a region within Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOJK). Falsely blaming Pakistan for the violence, India used this pretext to stoke nationalist fervor ahead of domestic political challenges. This manufactured incident became a launchpad for what appeared to be a calculated move by New Delhi to divert international attention from its domestic crises and assert military dominance in the region.

Despite clear evidence contradicting Indian claims, New Delhi moved ahead with a military offensive. On May 7, 2025, Indian forces crossed international boundaries and launched deep strikes inside Pakistan—a blatant violation of sovereignty and international law. It was a reckless move that not only shattered the fragile peace of the region but also stunned the world.

Pakistan’s Strategic Restraint and Calculated Response

In the face of this unprovoked aggression, Pakistan displayed extraordinary restraint and maturity. Rather than escalating the conflict, Islamabad appealed to the international community, calling for immediate intervention to prevent a full-scale war between two nuclear powers. Pakistan’s diplomacy during this critical window—between May 7 and May 10—won widespread praise. It highlighted Pakistan’s commitment to regional peace and responsible state behavior.

However, when Indian aggression exceeded all limits and attempts for mediation failed, Pakistan responded decisively on May 10, 2025, launching a measured, strategic, and overwhelmingly effective military operation. The response was not only proportionate but also precise, ensuring minimal civilian casualties while targeting the Indian military infrastructure that had posed a direct threat to Pakistani security.

Diplomatic and Military Triumph for Pakistan

This conflict marked a watershed moment for Pakistan. On the battlefield, Pakistan’s armed forces demonstrated operational superiority, successfully neutralizing key Indian assets, including the much-touted Rafale jets and the Russian-supplied S-400 air defense system. These feats shocked military analysts worldwide and triggered an urgent reassessment of defense procurement strategies in several countries.

On the diplomatic front, Pakistan emerged as the voice of sanity and peace, contrasting sharply with India’s belligerent posture. Countries across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and even parts of Europe recognized Islamabad’s measured conduct and strategic vision. The Foreign Office, backed by Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership, engaged global capitals effectively, reaffirming Pakistan’s image as a peace-loving, mature, and responsible nation.

Domestic Resonance: Unity in Pakistan, Crisis in India

The war had starkly contrasting domestic impacts on the two nations.

In Pakistan, the crisis served as a unifying force. The military, political leadership, media, and the general public were united like never before. The harmony between the Pakistan Army, Air Force, Navy, government, media, and civil society showcased the nation’s resilience and cohesion. Public confidence in national institutions soared. The political leadership gained rare credibility and popular support. The whole country was on one page—determined, disciplined, and dignified.

In India, the fallout was disastrous. After suffering a humiliating defeat on May 10, India was left grappling with the consequences of its failed adventure. The Indian armed forces suffered major losses and appeared disoriented and under-prepared. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had personally driven the jingoistic narrative, saw his political capital evaporate. Protests erupted across India, with opposition parties, civil society, and even coalition allies questioning Modi’s judgment and accountability.

Modi’s once formidable political empire now faces a potential collapse. Voices within India are growing louder, demanding answers not just for the military failure but for the broader damage done to India’s international reputation. His premiership hangs in the balance, with many predicting an imminent political crisis that could end his rule.

Global Shockwaves: Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence

Perhaps the most disturbing global consequence of this war was the challenge to the long-standing doctrine of nuclear deterrence. For decades, the consensus was clear: nuclear-armed states avoid direct military confrontations. India shattered this belief by initiating armed conflict against another nuclear state. The implications are profound.

It was Pakistan’s visionary leadership and strategic wisdom that prevented the situation from spiraling into a nuclear exchange. Islamabad’s composure ensured that the war, though intense, remained conventional and limited in scope. Nevertheless, global defense and strategic communities are now forced to revisit and re-evaluate the assumptions underpinning nuclear deterrence.

Defense Industry Fallout: A Major Shift

The performance of military hardware during the war also sent shockwaves through the global defense industry. India’s Rafale jets, supplied by France, were shot down by Pakistan’s Air Force, exposing serious vulnerabilities. Within hours, Rafale’s global reputation took a hit, and the share value of Dassault Aviation dropped significantly. Several countries reportedly cancelled or reconsidered Rafale orders, questioning the wisdom of investing in the French fighter jet.

Similarly, India’s much-hyped Russian S-400 air defense system failed to protect its airspace. Pakistani strikes effectively neutralized these systems, challenging the credibility of one of Russia’s flagship exports. The Russian defense industry is now under scrutiny, with potential global buyers reconsidering their options.

Meanwhile, Chinese military hardware emerged as a winner. Pakistan’s use of JF-17 and J-10C fighter jets, jointly developed or supplied by China, demonstrated not only reliability but also battlefield superiority. These aircraft performed impressively, attracting the attention of countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. China’s defense industry may well emerge as the biggest beneficiary of this conflict, enhancing its export prospects significantly.

Strategic Isolation of India

The war has also led to India’s diplomatic and strategic isolation. While India expected support from its allies, most global powers distanced themselves from New Delhi’s actions. Even close allies such as France and Russia found themselves under pressure, not only because their military technology failed but also because of their implicit support to an aggressor state. Western democracies, particularly those that value international law and peace, found India’s narrative unconvincing and its aggression unacceptable.

As India’s credibility deteriorates, Pakistan’s reputation as a responsible global player has only grown. Countries and organizations that were once skeptical are now engaging with Pakistan more constructively, appreciating its balanced approach to diplomacy and security.

A New Strategic Order in South Asia

The May 2025 war was more than a military confrontation—it was a clash of ideologies, strategies, and political narratives. India, driven by hubris and internal political compulsions, overstepped its limits and paid the price. Pakistan, under pressure and provoked, responded with restraint, dignity, and power, demonstrating that true strength lies not in reckless aggression, but in vision, unity, and principled action.

In the aftermath of the conflict, Pakistan stands tall—its military performance celebrated, its diplomacy respected, and its global image rejuvenated. India, on the other hand, is left to pick up the pieces of a failed gamble, with far-reaching consequences for its politics, military, economy, and international standing.

The world must now reflect deeply on the lessons of this war, especially on the fragility of nuclear deterrence, the need for credible conflict resolution mechanisms, and the imperative of responsible state behavior in a volatile global order.

As Pakistan emerges from this crisis stronger and more united, it carries the moral authority to lead regional peace initiatives, reaffirming its commitment to peaceful coexistence, sovereign equality, and mutual respect. The May 2025 war, tragic in origin yet transformative in outcome, has marked the beginning of a new strategic order in South Asia—one that the world cannot afford to ignore.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)