Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Founding Chair GSRRA, Sinologist, Diplomat, Editor, Analyst, Consultant, Advisor, and Non-Resident Fellow of CCG. (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

In the intricate web of global politics, the relationship between the United States and China has emerged as one of the most consequential dynamics of our time. As these two superpowers vie for influence, their strategies have profound implications for nations across the globe. Among the countries caught in this geopolitical tug-of-war is Bangladesh, a South Asian nation whose recent tilt towards China has drawn significant attention and pressure from the United States.

Bangladesh's Strategic Shift Towards China

In recent years, Bangladesh has increasingly strengthened its ties with China. This relationship has been driven by China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to enhance global trade routes through significant infrastructure investments. For Bangladesh, partnering with China offers substantial economic benefits, including the development of ports, power plants, and transportation networks. These projects promise to boost Bangladesh's economy, create jobs, and enhance its regional connectivity.

Economic Cooperation and Trade

Trade: China has become Bangladesh's largest trading partner. The bilateral trade volume has seen impressive growth, with China exporting machinery, electronics, textiles, and other goods, while Bangladesh exports ready-made garments, seafood, and agricultural products to China. The trade relationship is mutually beneficial, enhancing economic prospects for both nations.

Investment: Chinese investment in Bangladesh has surged, particularly in infrastructure projects. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has facilitated significant Chinese investment in Bangladesh's infrastructure, including the Padma Bridge, Payra Port, and various power plants. These projects are crucial for improving Bangladesh's connectivity, energy security, and overall economic development.

Industrial Cooperation: China has been instrumental in the development of Bangladesh's industrial sector. Establishing special economic zones (SEZs) with Chinese support has attracted more foreign direct investment (FDI), boosting industrial growth and creating job opportunities for Bangladesh's burgeoning workforce.

Political Alliance

Diplomatic Relations: The political alliance between Bangladesh and China is marked by mutual respect and a shared vision for regional peace and development. High-level visits and exchanges between leaders have strengthened diplomatic ties, fostering a robust partnership.

Strategic Cooperation: Bangladesh and China cooperate closely on various strategic issues, including defense and security. China's support in modernizing Bangladesh's military capabilities has enhanced the country's defense infrastructure. Additionally, collaboration in areas such as counter-terrorism and disaster management underscore the comprehensive nature of their strategic partnership.

Development Assistance: China has provided substantial development assistance to Bangladesh, including grants, loans, and technical support. This assistance has been pivotal in areas such as healthcare, education, and technology transfer, contributing to Bangladesh's socio-economic progress.

However, this strategic partnership has not been welcomed by all. The United States, perceiving China's expanding influence as a threat to its own strategic interests in South Asia, has expressed concerns over Bangladesh's growing closeness with Beijing. The US has repeatedly urged Bangladesh to reconsider its alignment, warning of the potential consequences of becoming too dependent on Chinese investments and influence.

US Pressure and the Rise of Internal Unrest

Despite US warnings, Bangladesh has remained resolute in its engagement with China. This defiance has reportedly led to increased pressure from the United States, manifesting in both diplomatic channels and covert operations. Observers and experts believe that the US, through its intelligence agency, the CIA, has been actively working to destabilize Bangladesh from within as part of its broader anti-China campaign.

The most striking manifestation of this alleged interference is the recent surge in student protests across Bangladesh. While these protests ostensibly stem from domestic grievances such as corruption, economic challenges, and political repression, many experts argue that external influences have exacerbated these issues. The involvement of the CIA is suspected to be a catalyst in mobilizing and sustaining these protests, leveraging legitimate local discontent to achieve broader geopolitical aims.

The Role of the CIA in Destabilizing Bangladesh

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has a long history of involvement in foreign nations' internal affairs, often justified by the need to protect US interests. In the context of Bangladesh, the CIA's alleged activities aim to undermine the current government, which has shown a willingness to engage closely with China. By fostering internal unrest, the US hopes to create a more favorable political environment that would be less inclined to cooperate with Beijing.

The student protests, characterized by their intensity and persistence, are seen by some as part of this strategy. The protests have disrupted daily life, strained the country's resources, and created a sense of instability. While genuine grievances exist, the scale and coordination of the unrest suggest a level of orchestration that goes beyond organic grassroots movements.

Anti-American Sentiments in Bangladesh

The US pressure has not gone unnoticed by the Bangladeshi public. There is a growing sense of anti-American sentiment fueled by perceptions of interference in national sovereignty and internal affairs. This sentiment is compounded by historical grievances and a nationalist narrative that sees external pressure as an affront to national dignity.

The rift between the US and Bangladesh is a classic example of how divergent geopolitical interests can strain bilateral relationships. As Bangladesh navigates its foreign policy, balancing relations with major powers like China and Russia against the backdrop of US pressure will be crucial. The international community will be watching closely as this drama unfolds, with significant implications for regional stability and global geopolitics.

Sheikh Hasina, the leader of the Awami League, first became the Prime Minister of Bangladesh on June 23, 1996. She has been elected as Prime Minister three times:

First Term: From June 23, 1996, to July 15, 2001.

Second Term: From January 6, 2009, to January 12, 2014.

Third Term: From January 12, 2014, to January 7, 2019.

Fourth Term: From January 7, 2019, to the present (2024).

Sheikh Hasina is currently serving her fourth term as Prime Minister, having been re-elected in the general elections held in December 2018.

Prime Minister Hasina's administration faces a challenging path ahead, requiring astute diplomacy and strategic foresight to maintain Bangladesh's sovereignty and pursue its national interests amidst growing international tensions. She has been facing a huge pressure from opposition political parties internally too.

The Broader Implications for South Asia

The situation in Bangladesh is a microcosm of the larger strategic contest between the US and China. As nations in South Asia navigate their relationships with these superpowers, they must balance economic opportunities with political and strategic considerations. For Bangladesh, the challenge lies in leveraging Chinese investments for national development while managing the pressures and repercussions from the United States.

This geopolitical struggle also has broader implications for regional stability. If the US continues to exert pressure on nations aligning with China, we may witness increased internal conflicts and unrest in other countries as well. Such destabilization efforts not only hinder national progress but also pose risks to regional peace and security.

There must be multiple reasons for current unrest, Bangladesh should address the root causes of domestic discontent to mitigate the impact of any external interference. By promoting good governance, transparency, and inclusive development, the government can reduce the vulnerability of its society to manipulation by foreign powers.

The geopolitical contest between the US and China has profound implications for nations like Bangladesh. As the US intensifies its anti-China campaign, countries that choose to engage with Beijing face significant challenges and pressures. The situation in Bangladesh, marked by internal unrest and alleged external interference, highlights the complexities and stakes of this global struggle. Moving forward, it is imperative for Bangladesh to carefully navigate these dynamics, prioritizing its sovereignty and national development while striving for regional stability and cooperation. China may also come forward to directly assist Bangladesh to stabilize the country. 

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)