Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Founding Chair GSRRA, Sinologist, Diplomat, Editor, Analyst, Consultant, Advisor, and Non-Resident Fellow of CCG. (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

Europe is witnessing a significant political shift as recent elections across the continent reflect changing sentiments among the electorate. These changes, characterized by the rise of both far-right and centre-right parties, could have profound implications for Europe’s domestic policies and its relationships with the rest of the world, particularly developing countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.

Background of the Political Shift

The political landscape in Europe is experiencing a transformation, marked by the resurgence of conservative parties and the growing influence of far-right factions. Key elections in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Austria have highlighted this trend.

• Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition of Social Democrats, Greens, and liberals has faced significant challenges, exacerbated by the economic impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a surge in migration. The conservative CDU emerged as the largest party with 30% of the vote, while the far-right AfD also made significant gains.

• Italy: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's right-wing Brothers of Italy party secured 29% of the vote, consolidating her power. Meanwhile, the opposition centre-left Democratic Party also performed well, securing 24% of the vote.

• Netherlands: The anti-immigration Freedom Party (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, saw substantial gains, reflecting ongoing public concerns over immigration and EU policies.

• Hungary: Viktor Orban's Fidesz party maintained its dominance, but the emergence of the new centre-right Tisza party signaled a shift in the opposition landscape.

• Austria: The Freedom Party (FPÖ) declared a “new era in politics” after a strong showing, positioning itself as a major force ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections.

New Governments’ Approaches

The newly elected governments and rising parties across Europe are likely to pursue policies that reflect their conservative and nationalist agendas:

• Germany: The CDU is expected to take a tougher stance on migration and may reconsider its approach to Russia and Ukraine, potentially advocating for more pragmatic solutions.

• Italy: Giorgia Meloni is likely to continue her firm stance on immigration and seek to bolster Italy’s position within the EU.

• Netherlands: Geert Wilders' PVV will likely push for stricter immigration controls and could renew discussions about the Netherlands' relationship with the EU.

• Hungary: Viktor Orban will likely continue his nationalist policies, while the Tisza party might introduce more moderate conservative approaches.

• Austria: The FPÖ's potential rise to power could see Austria adopting more stringent immigration policies and a skeptical stance towards EU regulations.

Impact on Developing Countries

The shift towards conservatism and nationalism in Europe could have several impacts on developing countries:

• Middle East and Africa: Stricter immigration policies in Europe could result in reduced opportunities for migrants and refugees from these regions, potentially increasing pressure on neighboring countries to host displaced populations. Aid and development assistance could also be re-evaluated under new conservative regimes.

• Asia: Countries with significant migrant populations in Europe, such as those in South Asia, might face challenges due to tighter immigration controls. Trade policies could also be affected, with potential shifts towards protectionism impacting economic relations.

• Arab and Muslim Countries: The rhetoric and policies of far-right parties often focus on limiting immigration from predominantly Muslim countries, which could strain diplomatic relations. However, some European countries might seek to strengthen economic ties with wealthy Gulf States.

Global Reactions

China and Russia: Both countries are likely to monitor these political shifts closely. Russia might find some European parties more amenable to negotiating peace in Ukraine and restoring economic ties. China, on the other hand, might view the rise of nationalist policies as both a challenge and an opportunity, potentially seeking to strengthen bilateral ties where possible.

The political changes in Europe mark a significant shift that will reverberate beyond the continent. While the immediate effects may lead to stricter immigration policies and a reevaluation of foreign aid, the long-term impacts will depend on how these new governments navigate their positions within the global community. The responses from other global powers, particularly China and Russia, will further shape the international landscape in the years to come.

Europe and America was developed with cheap labour from the developing countries, but, now they think it as a burden. Conservatives might harm the immigrants, leading to decline of Europe. On other hand, Russia and China are growing at a accelerated speed, creating opportunities for work force from developing nations. End of the day, it will be Europe, which will suffer more in the longer run.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)