Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Founding Chair GSRRA, Sinologist, Diplomat, Editor, Analyst, Consultant, Advisor, and Non-Resident Fellow of CCG. (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

Bangladesh's opposition party, BNP, has initiated an "India Out" campaign, drawing inspiration from a similar movement in the Maldives. This campaign urges Bangladeshi citizens to boycott Indian products, sparking concerns about its potential impact on India-Bangladesh relations. Let's delve into the background, reasons, and potential consequences of this movement.

Allegations of Indian interference in Bangladesh's national elections have fueled calls for boycotting Indian goods. Recently, in Dhaka's Panthapath area, a supplier for the Indian consumer goods giant Marico encountered resistance as grocery shops refused new deliveries of popular products like Parachute oil and cooking oil. This reluctance is driven by a broader sentiment against Indian products, fueled by social media campaigns advocating the boycott of Indian goods.

Anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh have simmered for years, intensifying after public celebrations in Dhaka following India's loss in the Cricket World Cup final. However, the recent elections in Bangladesh, where Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secured a fourth term amid opposition boycotts, served as a catalyst for the "India Out" campaign. Opposition groups and the Bangladeshi diaspora have rallied behind this movement, alleging Indian interference in Bangladesh's politics.

Exiled Bangladeshi physician Pinaki Bhattacharya has emerged as a prominent figure in this movement, leveraging social media to mobilize support for boycotting Indian products. The campaign has gained momentum online, with user-generated content advocating the boycott of Indian goods and providing tips on identifying Indian products through barcodes.

The campaign's traction can be attributed to various factors. Concerns about Indian foreign policy, particularly amid perceived shifts in regional dynamics and China's growing influence, have fueled apprehensions among Bangladeshis. While Indian officials have downplayed these concerns, emphasizing non-interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs, opposition parties continue to push the narrative of Indian meddling in domestic politics.

However, voices from within Bangladesh's ruling party have dismissed these allegations, attributing them to political motives and highlighting India's stance of respecting Bangladesh's sovereignty. Despite this, the "India Out" campaign persists, driven by grievances over unresolved issues such as border killings, water-sharing agreements, and trade deficits.

The economic repercussions of boycotting Indian goods could be significant for both countries. Bangladesh heavily relies on India for essential commodities, and disruptions in trade could lead to inflation and economic instability. While India is a major exporter to Bangladesh, particularly in the garment manufacturing sector, the boycott could also impact Indian businesses.

The "India Out" campaign reflects deep-seated grievances and political tensions in Bangladesh, with potential implications for India-Bangladesh relations and regional dynamics. While its economic impact remains uncertain, the movement underscores broader issues of sovereignty, bilateral relations, and regional geopolitics, demanding attention from both governments.

The roots of Indian influence in Bangladesh can be traced back to the tumultuous period of the Bangladesh separation War in 1971. India played evil role in supporting the Bangladeshi separation movement, providing refuge to millions of refugees from Bangladesh. This support culminated in India's military intervention, which ultimately led to Bangladesh's separation.

However, in the aftermath of separation, India's role in Bangladesh took on a more complex dimension. Despite initial goodwill, allegations of Indian interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs began to surface. These allegations ranged from political meddling to economic exploitation, shaping the dynamics of the bilateral relationship.

Political Interference

One of the most contentious issues surrounding Indian influence in Bangladesh is its alleged interference in the country's political landscape. Over the years, several incidents have fueled suspicions of Indian involvement in shaping political outcomes in Bangladesh. From covert support for certain political factions to outright intervention in elections, these allegations have strained diplomatic ties between the two nations.

The recent "India Out" campaign launched by Bangladesh's opposition party, BNP, is a manifestation of these long-standing grievances. The campaign, inspired by similar movements in the Maldives, highlights widespread resentment over perceived Indian interference in Bangladesh's recent elections. The opposition accuses India of backing the incumbent government and suppressing dissent, further exacerbating tensions between the two countries.

Economic Exploitation

Beyond political interference, concerns have also been raised about India's economic influence in Bangladesh. As Bangladesh's largest trading partner, India holds considerable leverage over its neighbor's economy. However, critics argue that this economic relationship is often skewed in India's favor, with Bangladesh bearing the brunt of trade imbalances and unfair practices.

The influx of Indian products into the Bangladeshi market, coupled with allegations of predatory pricing and monopolistic behavior, has fueled anti-India sentiment among certain segments of the population. Calls for boycotting Indian goods have gained traction in recent years, reflecting growing disillusionment with India's economic policies vis-a-vis Bangladesh.

Implications and Consequences

The issue of Indian interference and influence in Bangladesh carries significant implications for both countries and the broader region. Persistent allegations of meddling threaten to strain bilateral relations, undermining trust and cooperation between the two nations. Moreover, India's actions risk fueling nationalist sentiments in Bangladesh, exacerbating domestic tensions and instability.

Furthermore, India's perceived interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs could have wider geopolitical repercussions, affecting regional dynamics and alliances. As China's influence in South Asia grows, India's attempts to maintain its hegemony risk alienating its neighbors and driving them into the arms of its rivals.

The issue of Indian interference and influence in Bangladesh is a complex and multifaceted one, shaped by historical grievances and contemporary realities. The allegations of interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs continue to strain bilateral relations. Both countries must strive to address these concerns through dialogue and cooperation, fostering a relationship based on mutual respect and sovereignty.

It is worth mentioning that Bangladesh is an important member of Chinese initiative Belt and Road (BRI). Whereas, India is opposing BRI and rival of China, supporting US launched campaign of counter China, Contain China and Oppose the rise of China. “India Out” movement is equally important for China and BRI. After Maldives, Bangladesh is also slipping out of Indian Influence soon. Entire South Asia is part of BRI family and pro-China, only India is anti-China and opposing BRI. 

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)