Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Founding Chair GSRRA, Sinologist, Diplomat, Editor, Analyst, and Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization). (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

Just like Hamas, the Khalistan have put India in a no-win situation. Even from a gravely weak position the two have outplayed vastly superior foes because both Hamas and Sikhs have legitimate national aspirations that are being denied. The Divine Right is on their side. 

If Israel attacks, she loses, if not, she loses more. If India appeases to Canada and opens an investigation, she loses by being exposed, if she does not as she has chosen to do, she loses more. It has been noticed that the Indian diaspora in the West, especially in Canada, have become sheepish, just as Jews are appearing apologetic in dealing with the locals.

One cannot overlook the role played by political leaders, Narendra Modi of India and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, in exacerbating these tensions. Their diplomatic missteps have turned erstwhile allies into adversaries. Both Hamas and the Khalistan movement have managed to garner substantial support from powerful backers: anti-Zionist forces support Hamas, while the Sikh diaspora stands firmly behind the Khalistan cause. In Canada, Jagmeet Singh's political influence is significant, holding the balance of power and influencing the fate of the ruling party. This has effectively put both India and Israel in a precarious position, at least temporarily.

In recent months, the strained relations between India and Canada have escalated into a full-blown diplomatic row, leaving both nations grappling with the complexities of international relations. At the heart of this conflict are the simmering issues related to freedom movements, notably the Khalistan movement for a separate independent state.  One can attribute both developments to the "marvellous" diplomatic skills of Modi and Netanyahu of turning friends into foes. They have been ambushed as both their adversaries have powerful backers. Hamas has anti-Zionist forces, and the Khalistan have the Sikh diaspora. Jagmeet Singh leads the 3rd political Party in Canada without whose support the minority Liberals will be booted out and in a new election may not be able to even get the numbers they have. Crudely speaking, both Hamas and Khalistan have their foes by their balls, at least for a while. How the cookie crumbles over the long run will be decided by global factors far away.

India has taken another extreme step by threatening to strip-off dozens of Canadian representatives of their diplomatic immunity, which has been seriously taken notice by Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly. Canada may sharply reduce its diplomatic presence in India. Forty-one Canadian diplomats have left India, Ms. Joly told reporters. This leaves only 21 Canadian diplomats working in India. The Indian government had ordered Canada to reduce its diplomatic missions in India as part of a crisis in relations between the two countries that was sparked by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusation that New Delhi was behind the murder of a Canadian citizen. New Delhi had given Canada an ultimatum: withdraw 41 diplomats or it would revoke their diplomatic immunity. “I can confirm that India has formally conveyed its plan to unilaterally remove diplomatic immunities for all but 21 Canadian diplomats and dependents in Delhi by tomorrow, Oct. 20,” Ms. Joly said. “Given the implications of India’s actions on the safety of our diplomats, we have facilitated their safe departure from India,” she said.

On Sept. 18, Mr. Trudeau told the House of Commons that Canada had intelligence that “agents of the Indian government” were responsible for the gangland-style killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent advocate of a separate homeland for Sikhs in the Indian state of Punjab. He was gunned down in Surrey, B.C., in June.

After the Prime Minister’s stunning announcement, Ottawa immediately expelled an Indian diplomat and senior intelligence officer and New Delhi responded in kind. India also suspended visa services for Canadians, including e-visas and visas issued in third countries. Earlier, Ottawa had suspended free-trade talks and a Canadian business mission to India.

India has more than 60 accredited diplomats in Canada, including three who are designated as non-residents, according to a list maintained by Ottawa’s Department of Global Affairs.

The Trudeau government and many of its Western allies, including the United States, have urged India to co-operate with Canada in helping to arrest the people responsible for the death of Mr. Nijjar.

Intelligence from a Five Eyes ally – an alliance composed of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand – makes up part of the evidence that shows the possible involvement of Indian agents in the killing.

The Prime Minister has not said whether it will release classified intelligence to buttress the government’s allegations that agents of India were behind the killing of Mr. Nijjar.

The international community, including the United States and its Five Eyes allies, has urged India to collaborate with Canada in the investigation. Classified intelligence from these allies has further implicated Indian agents in the crime. India's historical involvement in cross-border terrorism across neighbouring countries has added weight to these allegations, bringing international scrutiny to its actions. As a matter of fact, India has a long history of similar act and there exists a strong evidence that India has been involved in cross border terrorism. But as long as, Indian operations were limited to its neighbouring countries, which are weaker and smaller nations, the issue never gained momentum. Inia has been involved in killing, espionage, and terrorism, in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Afghanistan etc. After so many similar operations, India gained courage to repeat such an action in Canada.  Indian denial to cooperate in joint investigation is a valid proof that the state was involved and scared being exposed. After the incident, Indian state instead of being apologetic, has become more arrogant and even playing more dirty tricks. There will be a cost, India have to pay. 

First of all, Indian extremist Prime Minister Modi lost his popularity with in India and may face tough time in upcoming election next year. Secondly, Khalistan Movement gained momentum and moved closer to independence. Thirdly, neighbours of India may get alert and may not allow it to do similar activities in the future. Fourth, the humiliation faced by India may stay for ever and its ugly face has been exposed to the rest of world. India might face tough time in the international community in the days to come.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)