Author: Gonzalo Paz, professor at the School of Foreign Service, Center for Latin American Studies, Georgetown University. 

The head of US diplomacy, Antony Blinken, will travel to China on February 5-6 and, although his agenda was not specified, it is expected that he will meet with his new Chinese counterpart, Qin Gang, to discuss diplomatic and economic issues, at a time of various tensions that are escalating between the governments of Joe Biden and Xi Jinping around, for example, the situation in Taiwan, the attitudes of North Korea or the shortage of semiconductors for the industry.

There will be several topics, now in a more propitious climate that gives continuity to what was discussed between Biden and Xi in Bali. The topics will be to resume cooperation at various levels, military, climate, the fight against drug trafficking and in particular fentanyl, which is of great concern to American society; resume high-level exchanges between officials and others. That is to say, all the issues that had been suspended since the crisis in August due to Pelosi's trip. Also, they will talk about Russia's war in Ukraine shortly after the first anniversary of the war, the issue of North Korea, the change in Chinese policy against Covid19. There will be a more propitious tone in 2023, but the structural will not change. I mean, in October 2022, the US published its National Strategy document and made its position on China clear. That will not change.

Among all the issues that I mentioned, there is a specific concern of the United States today, that is North Korea. It seems the most urgent, because it has been said that it could help Russia in the Ukraine war and that is worrying. There has been a new North Korean missile intensity and the only country with the ability to persuade Kim Jong-un is China.

Regarding Taiwan, recently US Air Force Air Mobility Commander Michael Minihan, in a memo reproduced by The Washington Post, suggested that there could be an armed conflict against China in 2025 and warned his troops to prepare. Is the issue not a priority for the US?

Officially there is nothing like that. In May of last year, Blinken spoke at George Washington University (it happened before Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan) and said that the long-term challenge for the US was China, but the US was determined to avoid conflict and a new cold war. That is also written in the document of October 12 on the National Strategy, where he literally says: "compete responsibly." So, the official position is that.

I think the State Department and the White House have optimistic expectations. Not of structural changes, but of prosecuting what are the most important bilateral relations in the world, that there is a temporary détente given the lifting of Covid-Zero policy and the overcoming of the Pelosi —who is already not the head of the House of Representatives. On the other hand, the new Chinese foreign minister, Qin Gang, has been ambassador in Washington and knows the US very well. He will be the one to receive Blinken, they know each other very well. Former Foreign Minister Wang Yi is now heading the Foreign Affairs Commission and has been very firm with the US. But Qin is an expert in this matter, therefore, added to all of the above and to the foundations that Presidents Biden and Xi laid at their November meeting, there is an expectation that generates moderate optimism for this tour.

(APD)