Can Moon Jae-in save the U.S.-DPRK talks?

Editor's note: Cheng Xiaohe is an associate professor at the School of International Studies under the Renmin University of China, and he is also a senior researcher with Pangoal Institute. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of APD.

After coming into power for almost three years, South Korea's President Moon Jae-in now has a hard time as his country's slower-than-expected economy shows no sign of improvement.

Although his government has adopted a variety of incentive measures, export continues to slip and an increasing number of young people struggle to find a job; the inter-Korean relations, which have been a silver lining in his diplomacy, hang in balance thanks to the falling apart of the second Trump-Kim summit even though Moon has worked hard to make it happen.

Ri Yong-Ho, DPRK's foreign minister, speaks during a news conference following the DPRK-US Hanoi Summit, March 1, 2019.

The failure of the summit poured cold water over Moon's high expectation. The double whammy damaged his political popularity. According to a recent weekly poll conducted by Gallup Korea, Moon's job approval rating has come to 41 percent, marking the lowest level since he took office in May 2017.

In order to boost his sagging popularity and salve the endangered U.S.-DPRK talks, President Moon .

No doubt, Moon and Trump will seize the change to address some thorny and pressing issues on their bilateral relations, such as the cost-sharing for stationing U.S. forces in South Korea and the Transfer of Wartime Operational Control (OPCON).

The defense cost-sharing issue has troubled their allied relations for some time, in the past year, the two sides had conducted ten rounds of painstaking negotiations and finally reached a compromise. They may also need to forge a consensus about a mutually acceptable cost-sharing arrangement that can consolidate their long-term relationship.

The OPCON issue has been around for a long time and stands as a testament to South Korea's incomplete sovereignty. In the past years, both South Korea and the United States have repeatedly postponed transferring the OPCON to the hand of South Korea.

Moon is determined to complete the transfer by the year 2023. As the deadline of the wartime OPCON is approaching, it is very important for Moon and Trump to work out a transfer plan as early as possible.

Certainly, Moon may also explore a possibility with Trump of extending U.S. sanction exemption of South Korea's import of oil from Iran as the previous one is to expire on May 3.

Notwithstanding, the bilateral issues are just the side dish for the Moon-Trump summit, the main course is about the stalled U.S.-DPRK talks. As the DPRK has made it clear that it "has no intention to yield to the U.S. demands (at the Hanoi summit) in any form, nor are we willing to engage in negotiations of this kind," Moon's main mission is to salvage the U.S.-DPRK talks.

There are a number of things Moon and Trump have to do in their meeting in this regard.

U.S. special representative for the DPRK Stephen Biegun (R), shakes hands with South Korea's Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Lee Do-hoon (L) prior to their meeting at the Foreign Ministry, February 9, 2019, Seoul, South Korea. /VCG Photo

First of all, they will exchange their own assessment of the post-second Trump-Kim summit situation and synchronize their respective policies toward DPRK since it is not a secret that South Korea and the United States are not always on the same page in dealing with issues related to DPRK. Therefore, at this critical juncture, Moon and Trump may try to coordinate their positions on these issues.

Besides, Moon may explore some kind of proposal that is "good enough" for both the United States and the DPRK to accept. In the immediate wake of the second Trump-Kim summit, Moon launched a salvage campaign by sending his special envoy on peninsula affairs Lee Do-hoon, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha and defense minister Jeong Keyong-doo to Washington to get the facts about the failed summit and align two countries' positions.

As both the DPRK and the United States harden their positions on nuclear and sanction issues, Moon may find that he is fighting an uphill battle to convince Trump to ask less from and give more to DPRK.

Even though Trump insists that he wants to continue to talk to Kim and Secretary Pompeo claimed that he was "confident" there would be a third summit between Trump and Kim, Moon may struggle to come up with an idea under what condition that third summit will happen.

Moon has a lot of work to do to pull the U.S. and DPRK to the negotiating table when both parties are still licking their wounds. The timing of Moon's visit to Washington was consciously chosen right before the highly-expected Fourth Plenary of the Seventh Worker Party of Korea's Congress and the 14th Supreme People's Assembly.

On March 15, DPRK's Vice Minister Choe Son Hui once announced that Kim Jong Un himself will make a statement about the nuclear and missile tests. If we take this announcement seriously, it is better for us to keep our ears open to what Chairman Kim may say in these two important meetings.

By visiting Washington and getting something from Trump, Moon may try to present a strong case to DPRK's leader that it is worth another try to meet with Trump in the future.

(CGTN)