Ukraine's most uncertain election will come with 'certain' results

The 2019 Ukrainian presidential election which starts today on March 31 is the most "uncertain" and competitive one since its independence, with the number of candidates reached a record high of 39. The election is expected to go through two rounds of voting before the final winner can be decided. In addition to incumbent President Petro Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, there is also an actor Vladimir Zelensky who once played as the “President” on the TV political show now deciding to run for the presidency in real life that might turn out to be the dark horse.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukrainian comedian and candidate in the upcoming presidential election, hosts a comedy show at a concert hall in Brovary, Ukraine March 29, 2019. /VCG Photo

European integration

However, Ukraine's main policy will likely remain "certain." No matter which candidate is elected, Ukraine's current internal affairs, foreign policies and security policies will likely to be in the same direction. Almost all candidates place their hopes on European integration and multilateralism to tackle Ukraine's territorial security, corruption and improve economy. They think the EU is the most important external factor in pushing forward Ukraine's continued reform and the most critical external support for a peaceful settlement of the Donbass conflict.

European integration has become a common consensus in Ukrainian society. During the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, both Poroshenko and Tymoshenko were members of the pro-Western camp and had led demonstrations against Yanukovych administration together on Kiev's Independence Square. Later they formed a ruling coalition in parliament and established a coalition government.

At present, European integration has become the political consensus of most political parties. According to the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, both sides are willing to deepen political ties and strengthen economic links. Ukraine will respect the common value and the EU will open its market and provide large-scale loans to Ukraine. According to the social survey of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, the approval rate for European integration is over 52%, and it is more than 70% in the western and central regions of Ukraine.

Ukraine-Russia relationship

The Donbass conflict and the Crimean issue have become the "deadlock" in Ukraine-Russia relationship which is difficult to be normalized in the short term. Territory and security are among the most important national interests and where no leaders dare to make concessions easily.

Ukrainians seen next to cut-outsof Ukrainian presidential candidates Serhiy Taruta (C) and Yuriy Boyko (R) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) in Kiev, Ukraine, March 28, 2019. /VCG Photo

Since the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, the country has been struck in the geopolitical struggle. After the incorporation of the Crimean peninsula into Russia, the Donbass region has been in armed conflicts for a long time. And the country has not been able to improve its economy in a peaceful environment. Now, opposition to Russia has become a political consensus in Ukraine, and nationalism is the ideology that holds the greatest influence.

All the candidates, including Zelensky, Poroshenko and Tymoshenko, claimed that Crimea was Ukrainian territory and they would try to bring it back. They all believed that dialogue with Russia was the most feasible way to resolve the conflict peacefully. The most promising candidates all promote “anti-Russia and pro-West” as their fundamental foreign policy. The difference is that Poroshenko is an anti-Russia hardliner, while Zelensky and Tymoshenko are more moderate.

The results of this presidential election will have a great influence on the stability and development of Ukrainian society in the next five years and will affect the regional security and the future relations between major powers. At the regional level, the election results may determine the short-term security trend in Eastern Europe as the Donbass conflict has been the longest-lasting armed conflict in Europe since the Cold War. At the global level, the election result will also likely to have a lasting effect on the Russia-EU relations and Russia-U.S. relations.

(CGTN)