Mueller report good news for Trump, but probes will continue

Donald Trump and his supporters saw celebrations mixed with sharp criticisms of the media on Sunday night after to influence the result of the 2016 election.

"No Collusion, No Obstruction, Complete and Total EXONERATION," Trump tweeted after Attorney General William Barr's four-page summary of the Mueller report was released.

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The summary is good news for Trump. It finds No evidence of conspiracy or coordination with Russia, and neither the president Nor any of his family members will face indictment.

However on obstruction of justice, it is inconclusive. Barr quoted the report as stating, "while this report does Not conclude that the president committed a crime, it also does Not exonerate him."

Barr and deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein decided Not to prosecute, but that Mueller "does Not exonerate" Trump is likely to be a line Democrats will dig deeper into over the coming months.

And although Mueller's probe has concluded, criminal cases related to it are ongoing.

Among them, former Trump confidante Roger Stone is set to go to trial, a case against a Russian consulting company continues linked with disinformation continues in Washington, and both ex-national security adviser Michael Flynn and campaign aide Rick Gates are yet to be sentenced.

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Politically, the report's release is a potential turning point for Trump.

It lifts a dark cloud that has hovered over the president for the past two years, and reduces the risk of either a or an impeachment attempt. Mueller's findings mean Trump will almost certainly be the Republican Nominee in 2020.

But will the president turn the page or turn the tables?

Some will see the end to the investigation as an opportunity to try to move on from the polarization that has dominated Trump's presidency, build bridges, and reach out to Non-core voters.

Others will want revenge. Trump indicated on Sunday evening that those who pushed for the Mueller investigation should themselves be investigated. "This was an illegal take-down that failed and hopefully somebody is going to be looking at the other side," he said.

In the months ahead there's little doubt "No collusion, No obstruction" will be a central part of Trump's messaging, especially given that a multitude of probes into his political and personal affairs – unconnected to the Russia investigation – will continue.

Federal investigations – Notably by the Southern District of New York – are ongoing into hush money payments and the Trump inaugural committee among others, and in the Democratically-controlled House of Representatives probes into Trump will continue.

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The Mueller report changes the political landscape for the Democrats too. Senior figures and 2020 candidates – such as Bernie Sanders – reacted with a call for the entire report to be released, and indications are that a redacted version will be made public at some point.

But the party must decide whether it can effectively focus on the issues – health care, for example – which helped it perform well in the 2018 midterms, while also going after Trump in congressional inquiries.

It is a balance that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will work hard to find.

Republicans overplayed their hand in the late 1990s with Bill Clinton, and he left office with soaring approval ratings. The older generation of Democrats will be wary of replicating that mistake, but others in the party will want to continue to attack.

Pelosi downplayed the prospect of moving ahead with impeachment two weeks ago, saying "he's (Trump's) just Not worth it." This is a line she will likely repeat, and Mueller's findings should help her ward off calls to change her mind.

Overall, the headlines of the Mueller report are undoubtedly positive for Trump and his political messaging – "No obstruction, No collusion" – will be powerful.

But the president isn't out of the woods: The small print of Barr's summary suggests that if the report is published in full, there will be plenty more intrigue. And investigations into Trump's presidency and business affairs will go and on over the coming year.