What can be extracted from the U.S. trade data?

Editor's note: This article is an edited translation, published on The WeChat accounts Taoranbiji on March 7, 2019. The article reflects The authors' opinions, and not necessarily The views of CGTN.

On March 6, The U.S. Department of Commerce releasedU.S. International Trade in Goods and Services in 2018, and The data of which are very interesting.

“The U.S. Trade deficit was 59.8 billion U.S. dollars in December. In 2018, The U.S. Trade deficit increased to 621 billion U.S. dollars, The highest level since 2008. The goods Trade deficit for 2018 topped 891 billion U.S. dollars, a record high since The founding of The country.”

That means, after a year of The Trade war, The U.S. has recorded The largest goods Trade deficit in nearly 250 years.

While China-U.S. negotiations are entering a critical stage, this data can help us to see through things. Meanwhile, some issues should also be considered at this stage. The data have already shown that The U.S. will achieve nothing by starting a Trade war to balance its Trade.

The U.S. Trade imbalance is actually caused by its own economic structure. It is closely related to its position in The global industrial chain, a strong dollar policy and personal saving rates. Thus, it is not a problem that can be solved through a Trade war.

Unfortunately, over The past year, The U.S. has continued to use Trade imbalance as an excuse and has constantly been trying to balance its Trade by raising tariffs.

However, The outcome shows that The U.S. hasn't reached what They anticipated by such means.

Thanks to The data on Trade, The U.S. may become more receptive to reach an agreement, but negotiations may also become more difficult. It's been more than 10 days since The end of The 7th round of China-U.S. high-level Trade talks on February 24. But how is it going?

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) speaks during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He (R) as oTher U.S. officials look on in The Oval Office of The White House in Washington, DC, February 22, 2019. /VCG Photo

One thing is for sure: The negotiations are still going. As China's Minister of Commerce commented in an interview at The "ministers' passage": The work team is continuing The negotiation. We still have a lot to do, which requires The two countries to make joint efforts and meet each oTher halfway.

This is also confirmed in foreign reports. Reuters reported on March 6 that Ted McKinney, undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, said The Trade talks are primarily taking place via video teleconference and going well.

“Presently There are many discussions going on by digital video conference, also a very good and productive thing,” McKinney said.

Of course, negotiations must be more difficult. Since China-U.S. negotiations entered a critical stage, The two sides have sped up talks and The atmosphere was generally good, but The negotiations get tougher.

Now, The U.S. Trade data are released. On The one hand, The U.S. is likely to be more receptive to reach an agreement, but on The oTher hand, it may make a higher bid.

In particular, we cannot rule out The possibility that The U.S. may create a public opinion of “forcing China to compromise” for achieving a greater sense of gain, which will help to produce a favorable domestic atmosphere for The U.S. to reach a Trade deal.

Therefore, at this moment, Beijing and Washington need to make more attempts on details and even continue to make goodwill gestures, so that They can lead The negotiations to The direction of The final goal.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (L) takes part in U.S.-China Trade talks with China's Vice Premier Liu He (R) in The Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, DC, February 21, 2019. /VCG Photo

Moreover, it is necessary to understand why China needs to have negotiations with The U.S. Our principle is based on The fact that “Trade wars leave no winners” and “cooperation serves The interests of The two sides and conflict can only hurt both.”

Though we have repeatedly been stating our position, The U.S. probably did not know where The shoe pinched and decided to ignore it all at The beginning. And what's The result?

After a one-year Trade war, China and The U.S. now have sat again at The two sides of The negotiating table. The reason is straightforward. Facts speak louder than words.

It looks as if we are coming back to The same starting point after a year, but actually, we have experienced a difficult process of reasoning with The U.S. by hard struggles and convincing Them with hard facts.

If China and The U.S. can make a Trade deal, our benefit is to strive as much as possible for a period of strategic opportunity.

The time and space gained for development are to make China stronger. If we waste energy, resources and time on confrontation and lose The opportunity to develop our country, it will be a heavy cost.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)